Aspects of the sea level changes in the western Mediterranean Sea are investigated using a numerical tidal model of the Strait of Gibraltar. As a prerequisite, the performance of this model, that is, a two-dimensional, nonlinear, two-layer, boundary-fitted coordinate numerical model based on the hydrostatic approximation on an f plane, is assessed in the simulation of mean and tidal circulation of the Strait of Gibraltar. The model is forced by imposing mean interface and surface displacements as well as M2, S2, O1, and K1 tidal components along the Atlantic and Mediterranean model open boundaries. Model results are compared with observations and with results obtained from a tidal inverse model for the eastern entrance of the Strait of Gibraltar. In general, good agreement is found. A sensitivity study performed by varying different model parameters shows that the model behaves reasonably well in the simulation of the averaged circulation. The model is then used to investigate the climatological sensitivity of the simulated dynamics in the Strait of Gibraltar to changes in the density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. For this purpose, given a certain density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, the authors iteratively searched for that sea level drop between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean that fulfills the mass balance of the Mediterranean. It is found that an increase of the density difference leads to an increase of the exchange flow and to an increase of the sea level drop between the two basins. A trend in the sea level drop of O(1 cm yr-1), such as the one observed between 1994 and 1997, is explained by the model as the result of a trend of O(10-4 yr-1) in the relative density difference between the Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. The observed north-south asymmetry in this trend is also captured by the model, and it is found to arise from changes in the along-strait velocity. Results suggest that the dynamics within the Strait of Gibraltar cannot be neglected when sea level changes in the western Mediterranean basin are investigated. © 2004 American Meteorological Society.