Perspectives of parameter and state estimation in paleoclimatology in Climate Change, Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects, Proceedings of the Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium


Contact
Martin.Losch [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Past climates provide a means for evaluating the response of the climate system to large perturbations. Our ultimate goal is to constrain climate models rigorously by paleoclimate data. For illustration, we used a conceptual climate model (a classical energy balance model) and applied the so-called “adjoint method” to minimize the misfit between our model and sea-surface temperature data for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, between 19,000-23,000 years before present). The “adjoint model” (derivative code) was generated by an “adjoint compiler”. We optimized parameters controlling the thermal diffusion and the sensitivity of the outgoing longwave radiation to changes in the zonal-mean surface temperature and the atmospheric CO2 concentration. As a result, we estimated that an equilibrium climate sensitivity between 2.2 degC and 2.5 degC was consistent with the reconstructed glacial cooling, and we were able to infer structural deficits of the simple model where the fit to current observations and paleo data was not successful.



Item Type
Book
Authors
Divisions
Programs
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
30588
DOI 10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_7

Cite as
Paul, A. and Losch, M. (2012): Perspectives of parameter and state estimation in paleoclimatology in Climate Change, Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects, Proceedings of the Milutin Milankovitch 130th Anniversary Symposium / A. Berger , F. Mesinger and D. Sijacki (editors) , Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer-Verlag Wien, 242 p., ISBN: 978-3-7091-0972-4 . doi: 10.1007/978-3-7091-0973-1_7


Download
[thumbnail of paul_losch_2012_accepted.pdf]
Preview
PDF
paul_losch_2012_accepted.pdf

Download (543kB) | Preview
Cite this document as:

Share


Citation

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item