Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix


Contact
Stefan.Kruse [ at ] awi.de

Abstract

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present ‘Larix Vegetation Simulator’ LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64–80° N; 92–119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.



Item Type
Article
Authors
Divisions
Primary Division
Programs
Primary Topic
Peer revision
ISI/Scopus peer-reviewed
Publication Status
Published
Eprint ID
41625
DOI https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003

Cite as
Kruse, S. , Wieczorek, M. , Jeltsch, F. and Herzschuh, U. (2016): Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix , Ecological Modelling, 338 , pp. 101-121 . doi: https://www.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003


Share


Citation

Geographical region

Research Platforms
N/A

Campaigns
N/A


Actions
Edit Item Edit Item