The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene
Köhler, Peter ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0904-8484,
Knorr, Gregor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8317-5046,
Stap, Lennert ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2108-3533,
Ganopolski, Andrey,
de Boer, Bas,
van de Wal, Roderik S. W.,
Barker, Stephen and
Rüpke, Lars H.
;
Contact
Peter.Koehler [ at ] awi.de
Abstract
Some studies suggest that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S might be state-dependent. Reanalyzing existing paleodata of global mean surface temperature ∆Tg and radiative forcing ∆R of CO2 and land ice albedo for the last 800,000 years we show that this state-dependency of S is only found if ∆Tg is based on reconstructions, and not when ∆Tg is based on model simulations. Furthermore, during times of decreasing obliquity (periods of land-ice sheet growth and sea level fall) the multi-millennial component of reconstructed ∆Tg is diverging from atmospheric CO2, while in simulations both variables vary more synchronously. For a reconstruction-based extrapolation of S to the future we eliminate these periods due to an expected sea level rise. Consequently, S determined from proxy-based reconstructions without these data with strong ∆Tg-CO2 divergence is less state-dependent or even constant (state-independent), and yields into an equilibrium warming for 2 × CO2 of 1.9–3.8 K.
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Conference
(Talk)
Authors
Köhler, Peter ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0904-8484,
Knorr, Gregor ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8317-5046,
Stap, Lennert ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2108-3533,
Ganopolski, Andrey,
de Boer, Bas,
van de Wal, Roderik S. W.,
Barker, Stephen and
Rüpke, Lars H.
;
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Published
Event Details
PALMOD International Open Science Conference, 07 Apr 2018 - 08 Apr 2018, Vienna, Austria.
Eprint ID
46969
Cite as
Köhler, P.
,
Knorr, G.
,
Stap, L.
,
Ganopolski, A.
,
de Boer, B.
,
van de Wal, R. S. W.
,
Barker, S.
and
Rüpke, L. H.
(2018):
The effect of obliquity-driven changes on paleoclimate sensitivity during the late Pleistocene
,
PALMOD International Open Science Conference,
Vienna, Austria,
7 April 2018 - 8 April 2018
.
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