This data set contains a first‐order estimate of distribution, thickness and ice-content of submarine permafrost on the Arctic shelf based on a numerical heat transfer model. Our model uses dynamic upper boundary conditions that synthesize Earth System Model air temperature, ice mass distribution and thickness, and global sea level reconstruction and applies globally distributed geothermal heat flux as a lower boundary condition. Sea level reconstruction accounts for differences between marine and terrestrial sedimentation history. Sediment composition and pore water salinity are integrated in the model. Model runs for 450 ka for cross‐shelf transects were used to initialize the model for circumarctic modeling for the past 50 ka.This data set consists of current sea levels, and permafrost depth [m below sea floor(m bsf)], total ice-content [m^2 / m^3] and enthalpy [MJ / m^2] at times 50ka, 25ka and 0a before industrialization for 15892 locations on the Arctic shelf. Additionally zonations for permafrost depth and ice-content are given as layer files. Based on the undertaken sensitivity studies zones with <100m permafrost are uncertain, zones with 100-300m are probable, and zones with >300m are confident.